The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) expresses optimism for a rebound in the housing market in 2024. The key factors contributing to this optimism include falling rates for fixed mortgages and the potential for interest rate cuts later in the year. The association notes that the housing market faced challenges in 2023 due to elevated mortgage rates but anticipates an eight percent increase in unit sales in 2024.

BCREA's chief economist, Brendon Ogmundson, highlights the recent decline in fixed mortgage rates and potential Bank of Canada rate cuts as positive indicators for the real estate market. The association expects a delicate balance between rising sales and normalizing inventories throughout 2024, resulting in a relatively quiet year for prices.

The impact on prices will depend on how inventory changes over the year, with the BCREA suggesting that the normalization of new listing activity should lead to a more balanced market with relatively stable pricing. In Greater Vancouver, the board forecasts a more than nine percent increase in home sales in 2024 and an additional 12 percent jump in 2025.

In terms of average sale prices, the BCREA predicts a 1.7 percent increase in the province's average home price from just over $970,000 in 2023 to just under $988,000 in 2024. For Greater Vancouver, the average home price is expected to rise one percent from just over $1.28 million in 2023 to $1.29 million in 2024. The forecast takes into account a potential normalization of new listings and a more balanced market, although economic risks are acknowledged.

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Source: BC Real Estate Forecast 2024